New Study Reveals Contrasting Trends and Causes of Large Hail in a Changing Climate
A groundbreaking global study, led by the European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL), has for the first time modelled the occurrence of hail larger than 5 cm around the world. Published in Nature Geoscience, the study analysed long-term trends of hail frequency and associated economic losses over the past 30 years, shedding light on the impact of climate change on this natural phenomenon.
The research, conducted in collaboration with experts from the Adam Mickiewicz University of Poznań (Poland) and German reinsurer Munich Re (Germany), revealed that while very large hail is most common in parts of South America, the United States, and South Africa, the strongest increase in frequency has occurred in Europe. In contrast, some regions of the Southern Hemisphere have experienced a decline.
According to the study, changes in atmospheric moisture near the surface are primarily responsible for these trends. However, the researchers note that the rise in hail-related losses across Europe cannot be solely attributed to meteorological changes. Greater exposure and vulnerability, due to the construction of homes and infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, also play a significant role in the increase of economic losses.
“The potential for damage increases as more homes and infrastructure are built in areas prone to hailstorms,” explains lead author and storm researcher, Fabian Battaglioli. “This effect is a key driver of rising losses in the United States and along Australia’s coastlines.”
The study, which analysed data from 1950 to 2023, also provides insight into the annual number of very large hail events per decade, with a map illustrating mean trends over the past 73 years. Additionally, the researchers included hail stripes depicting the yearly occurrence of very large hail in six metropolitan regions.
The publication of this study marks a significant advancement in understanding the impact of climate change on large hail events and the associated economic losses. With hail-related losses on the rise across the globe, it is crucial to continue monitoring and researching the trends and causes of this natural phenomenon.
For more information on the study, please visit www.essl.org/cms/about-us/press. The link to the full study can be found at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01868-0.
For media inquiries, please contact Stefan Eisenbach at +4366473103344 or stefan.eisenbach@essl.org.
